Hurricane Jimena Heads Towards Todos Santos as a Cat 4

August 30, 2009 by  
Filed under Blog, Press

livecam

Cabo 4:07pm PDT

“If it were lush and rich, one could understand the pull, but it is fierce and hostile and sullen. The stone mountains pile up to the sky and there is little fresh water. But we know we must go back if we live, and we don’t know why.” – Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez

Some post-mortem coverage here:

Supplies sent to Jimena victims
KXO Radio
There was only one fatality reported, but thousands were left homeless and without in the Baja California Sur areas of Lopez Mateos, Campo Rene, 
See all stories on this topic

Helping Hurricane Jimena Victims: When Flying Becomes More Than a 

Examiner.com
This weekend, Dave is flying a charity mission to help hurricane victims in Mulegé, Baja California Sur, Mexico. Dave vacationed in Baja California Sur

Mexico: Hurricane Jimena DREF Operation No. MDRMX003
ReliefWeb (press release)
Branches in the state of Baja California Sur deployed 35 vehicles, and 16 rescue units were also mobilized. 170 volunteers have been involved in emergency 
See all stories on this topic

Support Hurricane Jimena Disaster Relief Efforts in Baja
By mexiconewsonline
The International Community Foundation is partnering with the Mexican Red Cross to support disaster relief efforts in Baja California Sur caused by Hurricane Jimena. The Red Cross has determined that the greatest needs are found in 
Mexico News Online – http://mexiconewsonline.wordpress.com/

Cabo Marinas Spared, but Hurricane Jimena Hits Baja and Sonora Hard
The Log Newspaper
Hurricane Jimena demolished major portions of central Baja California Sur and parts of Sonora, leaving an estimated 35000 people homeless. 

Most recent update below: Wed, Sept 2, 9:04am PDT (new updates in red).

A major hurricane, Jimena, is passing Todos Santos. The current conditions are about 80 degrees with sporadic rain. Water is 80 degrees plus.Jimena weakens and is now Cat 2.  Recent Public Advisory 20 at the bottom of this post.

TODOS SANTOS STILL HAS SOME MAGIC AND APPARENTLY MISSED WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN DEVASTING BUT WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. DAMAGE REPORT TO COME LATER TODAY.

SINAPROC declares yellow alert for Hurricane Jimena, Category 4. Families should prepare to go to shelters

The computer models are split, with one camp calling for a landfall in southern Baja, and the other camp calling for landfall farther north near central Baja. The official NHC forecast splits the difference between these two solutions, and landfall could occur anywhere along a long stretch of the Baja coast. At this point, the UKMET model’s solution taking Jimena westward out to sea is being discounted, since it is an outlier. The model indicates a 13% the Jimena will hit land near Cabo.

At 11:00 AM PDT the center was at 21.5 degrees north and 111.0 west.

At 500 PM PDT…0000 UTC…the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 18.8 north…longitude 109.2 west or about 285 miles…460 km…south of Cabo San Lucas Mexico.

Cabo at 1:43Pm Pacific

A Hurricane Warning has now been issued.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

ep200914_model

Most Recent Models

Nervous locals are removing satellites, solar panels and covering gaps in doors and windows, many wishing they had storm shutters. They are buying water and food. We’ll monitor the progress a keep you updated here; however, everyone in Todos Santos expects to lose power at some point so communications may be limited after Tuesday.

Jimena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over the southern half of the Baja California peninsula and portions of western Mexico during the next 2 days…with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Much of the damage caused to Baja by prior hurricanes was due to flooding and mudslides.

A storm surge along with large and dangerous battering waves will produce significant coastal flooding along the Baja California peninsula.

Twitter has been a great source of current info. and we keep that more current www.twitter.com/calycanto (or simply search jimena). We’ll also post the Advisories here as they are updated (Advisory 18 13A 13 12 is at the bottom of this post). The current advisories can also be found here:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/311136.shtml

“There’s a good chance this system could be a Category 5 in the next 24 hours,” said Dave Roberts, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center.

Projected Wind

Projected Wind

According to the National Hurricane Center’s model, there’s a 20% to 30% likelihood that Todos Santos will experience hurricane force winds, sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt…74 mph (hurricane force). See www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/143526.shtml?hwind120#contents

Hurricane Jimena Cat 4 Possibly Headed for Todos Santos

As of Tuesday afternoon, Jimena was located about 70 miles east of Todos Santos Baja California. The storm is expected to continue in a north-northwest motion and approach the southwestern tip of Baja California sometime early Tuesday.

Jimena is the 10th named storm of the Pacific season.

Jimenez

“It started out kind of slow for the Pacific,” said Robbie Berg, another specialist at the hurricane center. “But actually August, now we’ve had seven named storms form, and that’s pretty busy for August. We haven’t seen that — I think it’s been a couple decades since we’ve seen that many storms in August.”

“There’s no watches or warnings in effect, but we would like residents and tourists in the area to monitor the progress of the storm,” Berg said. “We do expect it to maintain its major hurricane strength as it heads up into that area.”

Here’s some good links to track this Hurricane and to read more about Baja Hurricanes:

ADVISORY 20

Hurricane Jimena Advisory Number 20

0
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 021436
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009

...CENTER OF JIMENA PASSES NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
24 HOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE
WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES... 45 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND
ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ON THIS COURSE...THE
CORE OF JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.  DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MOVED NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JIMENA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT JIMENA
IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.2N 112.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


ADVISORY ARCHIVES

Friday August 28, 2009
None issued 1: 800 PM PDT 1: 800 PM PDT None issued
Saturday August 29, 2009
1: 0300 UTC
2: 0900 UTC
3: 1300 UTC
4: 1500 UTC
5: 2100 UTC
2: 200 AM PDT
update: 518 AM PDT
3: 600 AM PDT
4: 800 AM PDT
5: 200 PM PDT
6: 800 PM PDT
2: 200 AM PDT
3: 600 AM PDT
4: 800 AM PDT
5: 200 PM PDT
6: 800 PM PDT
1: 0300 UTC
2: 0900 UTC
3: 1300 UTC
4: 1500 UTC
5: 2100 UTC
Sunday August 30, 2009
6: 0300 UTC
7: 0900 UTC
8: 1500 UTC
9: 2100 UTC
7: 200 AM PDT
8: 800 AM PDT
9: 200 PM PDT
10: 800 PM PDT
10a: 1100 PM PDT
7: 200 AM PDT
8: 800 AM PDT
9: 200 PM PDT
10: 800 PM PDT
6: 0300 UTC
7: 0900 UTC
8: 1500 UTC
9: 2100 UTC
Monday August 31, 2009
10: 0300 UTC
11: 0900 UTC
12: 1500 UTC
13: 2100 UTC
11: 200 AM PDT
11a: 500 AM PDT
12: 800 AM PDT
12a: 1100 AM PDT
13: 200 PM PDT
13a: 500 PM PDT
14: 800 PM PDT
14a: 1100 PM PDT
11: 200 AM PDT
12: 800 AM PDT
13: 200 PM PDT
14: 800 PM PDT
10: 0300 UTC
11: 0900 UTC
12: 1500 UTC
13: 2100 UTC
Tuesday September 1, 2009
14: 0300 UTC
15: 0900 UTC
16: 1500 UTC
15: 200 AM PDT
15a: 500 AM PDT
16: 800 AM PDT
16a: 1100 AM PDT
15: 200 AM PDT
16: 800 AM PDT
14: 0300 UTC
15: 0900 UTC
16: 1500 UTC

Possibly Related Posts:


Post to Twitter

  • Winsor Pilates

Speak Your Mind

Tell us what you're thinking...
and oh, if you want a pic to show with your comment, go get a gravatar!

You must be logged in to post a comment.


Featured Categories

Other

  • Copyright © 2008 CalyCanto Casitas™
  • All Rights Reserved

Welcome to the website for CalyCanto, offering Todos Santos vacation rentals and information about the area. We operate a boutique community, currently consisting of 3 casitas in Todos Santos, each with ocean views, about 2.5 miles from the town center, on the way La Pastura, a world class surf break. We at CalyCanto are passionate about eco-friendly travel that provides us with succulent surfing, pristine beach combing, intimate restaurants, exotic bird watching, super special sunsets, horseback riding on the beach, local tours and activities that support the local community. We believe in causing the least harm (approaching zero) while doing business. Environmentalism, sustainability and a commitment to protecting the natural environment through activism are part of our mission as we work to continually reduce our carbon footprint. We hope you'll follow our adventure here, on Twitter and on Facebook while you enjoy your coffee (or tea) or drink a Pacifico (if you've already made it here). If the tequila gets passed around the table too much, gringos might try and spell CalyCanto like calicanto, calecanto, or cal y canto. However you spell it, you are always welcome at Calycanto Casitas. Thank you for visiting.